Artificial intelligence (AI) could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs, a report by investment bank Goldman Sachs says.
AI has the potential to automate around 25% of job tasks in the United States and Europe. However, this shift could also lead to the creation of new job opportunities and a significant boost in productivity.
Furthermore, AI has the potential to eventually increase the overall annual value of global goods and services by 7%.
The report highlights that Generative AI, which can generate content that closely resembles human work, is considered a significant advancement.
It notes that government will promote investment in AI in UK “which will ultimately drive productivity across the economy.” As it tries to reassure public about its effects.
According to UK’s minister for technology, Michelle Donelan, “We want to ensure that AI is enhancing the working process in Britain, not disrupting or replacing it – make our occupations easier, not take away our jobs,” Sun quoted her.
There would be a varying degree to which AI would affect each sector; for instance, 48 percent of activities done in administration and legal fields can be replaced by robots where as they may not substitute any activity in, for example, construction field (Rubin and Hubbub,
Before, some artists who were concerned that AI image generators may destroy their jobs have been also reported by BBC News.
The UK government wants private sector to invest on the artificial intelligence technology, saying that this ultimately drive productivity economy wide, and has attempted to appease the general public on the implications of such technology.
The Minister for technology, Ms. Michelle Donelan explained to the Sun that “AI should supplement how we work in the UK, not take over our jobs,” adding that “AI should improve our jobs.”
It will have varying impacts on different sectors such as administrative and legal where 46% and 44% of task can be automated respectively but only 6% in construction and 4% in maintenance.
Some of these artists had expressed concern in prior BBC news reports on how this could lead to loss of job opportunities.
Carl Benedikt Frey, the director of the Future of Work program at the Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, shared his perspective with BBC News, saying, “The only thing I am certain of is that it’s difficult to predict how many jobs will be replaced by generative AI.”
He pointed out that tools like ChatGPT make it easier for individuals with average writing skills to produce essays and articles, which could lead to increased competition among journalists. This competition, in turn, might put pressure on wages, unless there’s a substantial rise in the demand for such work.
Frey drew a parallel with the introduction of GPS technology and platforms like Uber, where suddenly, having an in-depth knowledge of all the streets in London became less valuable. As a result, existing drivers faced significant wage reductions, approximately around 10%, as per their research.
The outcome was a decrease in wages, not a reduction in the number of drivers. Frey anticipates that generative AI could have similar impacts on a broader range of creative tasks in the coming years.
The study mentioned in the Report indicates that almost two-thirds of current workforce (i.e., about 60%) has been in occupation that had not existed in 1940.
Other works, however, indicate that job destruction has outpaced job creation from technological change since 1980.
Similarly, if generative AI behaves as other information technology advances in the short run, then the report predicts that the number of jobs will be reduced.
Chief executive of a think tank called Resolution Foundation told BBC News that they were very unsure about what the long term effects of AI would be, and therefore any predictions made about this should be taken with an extremely big pinch of salt.
He said, “We are clueless about how the science will change and how businesses will blend it with their workflow.”
That does not mean that AI will not alter the process of working; however, we must take into consideration the possible improvements in people’s lives due to more productive work.
The survey quotes a study indicating that 60% of employees are working within occupational sectors that had no existence before 1940.
On the other hand, other studies show that for the latest technological revolution changes in labor market are much faster than job creation.
In addition to this, according to the report, generative AI also has potential for short-term job loss on par with previous IT innovations.
Despite being unsure about its long-term effect, “so all firm predictions should be taken with a very large pinch of salt”, said Torsten Bell, chief executive of Resolution Foundation think tank, in an interview with BBC News.
“We are not sure about the future technological development and whether companies will assimilate it into the way they operate,” he stated.
However, AI is likely to transform work in different industries; hence, we should not only concentrate on the positive living standards benefits from higher efficiency at work due to lower production prices.
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